So proclaims Fast Company magazine in an article by Saabira Chaudhuri. Why?
1) Partnering with Cingular limits the customer base to 60 million, and according to survey data, the majority of people are happy with their existing carriers (not likely to switch)
2) Price. Is $500-$600 beyond the sweet spot for mass adoption?
3) The socio-technical and market landscape is completely different. The mobile phone market is relatively mature when compared to the 2001 MP3 player market where the iPod debuted. The iPod had major social influence - a key to its success. In contrast, just about everyone is comfortable with cell phones, that is, the demand to make a call on the go is not increased by the existence of the iPhone. The iPod on the other hand spurred social preferences and hence demand for portable digital music - a kind of self feeding momentum that the iPhone may not enjoy. An analogy (by no means perfect) I can think of: the iPod is closer to the model-T (groundbreaking) while the iPhone is closer to a stylish, 2008 hybrid that parks itself and gets 50 mpg.
The key to the iPhone's ability to revolutionalize mobile communications lies in its user-interface. Will it be compelling enough to make web-surfing-on-the-go as "normal" as making phone calls?